Hospitality returns to outlet growth

The report shows a 0.5% increase in the number of licensed premises between March and June 2024 — equivalent to 462 net new openings, or five per day.

It is the first such increase since mid-2022 and only the third since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in early 2020.

Second-quarter growth was even across the different sectors of hospitality and extended to the independent segment, where numbers increased by 0.5% to end several years of sustained closures caused by severe cost and Covid-related pressures.

“The return to outlet growth reflects the stabilisation of the market and paints a more positive picture for businesses and investors alike, with this growth acting as a marker for the recovery of the industry,” says Graeme Smith, managing director at AlixPartners.

“We expect to see this growth develop as confidence continues to rise in the second half of the year.” 
 
The upward trend is in line with other positive indicators from 2024, including solid growth in sales as measured by CGA by NIQ’s Trackers, plus an easing of inflation and household bills. However, while quarter-on-quarter movements are positive, longer-term comparisons are weaker, with outlet numbers down by 1.0% or 969 from June 2023.

Britain’s total sites are still 13.8% below the pre-Covid figure of March 2020.

“These numbers are a welcome sign of the confidence of business leaders and investors in hospitality,” says Karl Chessell, CGA by NIQ’s director - hospitality operators and food, EMEA.

“While it’s too early to be sure that hospitality’s downward trend in outlets has bottomed out, alongside solid sales growth over the first half of 2024 these figures indicate the brightest outlook for the sector for some time.” 

The latest Hospitality Market Monitor from CGA and AlixPartners highlights particularly positive developments in the casual dining sector.

After a rapid expansion of managed chain restaurants in the 2000s and 2010s, there were 6,696 casual dining sites at March 2020 — but Covid-19 and high inflation then saw the segment slashed by 24.1% to 5,082 sites by June 2023 — a total of 1,611 net closures or just over one per day.

However, the figure has risen by 1.7% in the last 12 months, with an average of three net new sites a week in the first six months of 2024.

“Cost pressures mean thousands of businesses remain fragile and millions of consumers’ discretionary spending continues to be tight, and hospitality may never fully return to its pre-Covid size in outlet terms,” adds Chessell.

“But it’s clear that it is now back on a much surer path.”