The annual UK Eating Out Market Report, which sheds light on the current trends and future prospects of the restaurant industry, indicates that the space is expected to reach a total value of £99.4bn in 2024, outpacing its pre-pandemic value by 8.2%.
The market is expected to grow ahead of inflation, indicating growth from stronger volumes following the impact of economic fallout from 2022 to 2023.
It is also forecast to see positive net space growth for the first time in five years, rising 0.2% to 321,826 outlets, driven by the expansion of a variety of formats and locations including travel hub, drive-thru and kiosk-style services.
The only channel to remain behind its 2019 market value is service-led restaurants, which Lumina says face a ‘challenging outlook’.
Service-led restaurants, particularly the independent segment, have been impacted by steep outlet declines and higher exposure to the impact of increased business rates, food and drink inflation and more stringent consumer spending.
The proportion of UK adults having a restaurant occasion has increased just 0.3 percentage points from 2022 to 2024, the more sluggish rate of penetration growth among market channels.
Looking ahead, easing economic tailwinds, boosted footfall and record employment is expected to result in a market value of £106.7bn in 2027.
Average earnings outpacing inflation alongside interest rate reductions are forecast to bolster consumer spending power over the next three years.
Investment in digitalisation, new formats and innovative new product development alongside continued net outlet growth will drive the eating out market by £7bn from 2024 to 2027.
For further information or to access the full UK Eating Out Market Report, click here.