The Tracker — produced by CGA by NielsenIQ in partnership with The Coffer Group and RSM UK — shows like-for-like December sales across Britain’s leading managed pub, bar and restaurant groups sales were 15% ahead of December 2021, when festive trading was hit by concerns about the Omicron variant of Covid.
However, sales were only 2% ahead of December 2019, and after adjustments for double-digit inflation, remain significantly behind pre-pandemic levels.
“After two bleak Decembers, solid Christmas trading helped many pub, bar and restaurant groups to end 2022 on a high,” says
“However, it is clear that sales remain well behind pre-Covid levels in real terms, and fragile consumer confidence and rail strikes made for tough trading conditions.
“With the costs of energy, food and other key costs continuing to soar, operators’ sales and profit margins are under severe pressure as we move into 2023, and with venues weakened by nearly three years of disruption, targeted government support is urgently needed to protect businesses and jobs.”
It was a particularly strong Christmas for pubs, where like-for-like sales finished 19.0% ahead of December 2021 as consumers’ concerns about Covid eased and the football World Cup drove fans into venues.
Year-on-year growth was more modest in restaurants at 9.1%, while sales in the bars segment were up 11.9%.
The Tracker highlights the ongoing recovery of London’s hospitality sector after Covid. December sales within the M25 were 22.8% ahead of 2021, when Omicron curtailed parties and celebrations in pubs, bars and restaurants. This is sharper year-on-year growth than outside the M25, where sales were up 12.9% year-on-year.
“Whilst pubs enjoyed a welcome boost in sales from the football World Cup, the 9.1% increase in restaurant sales in December were swallowed up by double-digit inflation, making this the 15th consecutive month of falling eating out like-for-likes in real terms,” Paul Newman, head of leisure and hospitality at RSM UK.
Newman adds that the headwinds facing the leisure and hospitality sector show little immediate signs of abating as consumer budgets are tightened further whilst the cost of energy, borrowing and labour remain elevated.
He notes that the first few weeks of 2023 has already seen some high profile casualties with Crussh and Byron announcing site closures as part of pre-pack administration deals.
“The first quarter of the year is always challenging in terms of cash flow, with significant rent and VAT outflows due at the end of March and April seeing the end of energy support and the start of Covid loan repayments.
“These factors will undoubtedly lead to more restructurings, providing consolidation opportunities for well-funded operators to capture market share from faltering rivals.”
