Pub and restaurant sales slow as Christmas approaches
Data published today from the Coffer Peach Business Tracker show that November sales across major pub and restaurant groups have grown by only 0.4 per cent compared to the same month last year, which is the slowest growth rate since May.
Total sales, which include new openings, were up 1.7 per cent, but month-on-month sales were 5.5 per cent down on October.
Mark Sheehan, managing director of Coffer Corporate Leisure, part of the Coffer Group, said the figures show the market is “still far from benign”.
“These numbers demonstrate tough trading as we head towards the key Christmas period,” he said.
The monthly Coffer Peach Business Tracker, which is a collaboration between Peach factory, KPMG, UBS and the coffer Group, monitors sales performance across 17 major pub and restaurant operators, including Mitchells & Butlers, Whitbread, Pizza Hut, Punch Pub Co, Gondola and Tragus.
Good summer business
According to the analysts, November was the sixth consecutive month of positive same-store sales in the eating and drinking out-of-home market, when compared to 2009.
The results also follow a good summer and early autumn for the chains, they said.
Tracker figures showed like-for-likes ahead +2.2 per cent in October, +1.0 per cent in September, +1.5 per cent in August, +1.9 per cent in July and +1.4 per cent in June, against the same months in 2009.
Last year, November saw a +1.3 per cent like-for-like increase on 2008 levels.
Strength of brands
"While the leading operators have managed another month of [like-for-like] growth, the outlook for the sector remains relatively challenging,” said Richard Hathaway,head of Travel, Leisure and Tourism at KPMG.
This month’s trading is expected to be adversely impacted by the recent snow and ice, with a low double-digit drop in like-for-like sales on the first two weeks of the month.
“Weather disruption this month, the VAT increase in January and the prospect of subdued consumer confidence in 2011 will all make trading tough, particularly outside of central London. It is likely therefore to be only those operators and brands that can beat the market that will see meaningful growth for a while."
Snowy Christmas
“We believe sales growth in recent months has been a combination of footfall and price rises taken ahead of the January VAT rise,” said Jonathan Leinster,head of European leisure and tobacco research,atUBS Investment Bank.
“Many operators experienced very poor trading during the snowy weeks early in the and so we are concerned that December trading will also prove to be disappointing, and we believe that Christmas falling on a Saturday is not as constructive for pub and restaurant trading as when it falls on a weekday.”
